EST. 1987 · PUBLISHED EVERY TRADING MORNING BY THE DESK
Drift at the highs, fuse still lit
Inflation has surprised to the upside into election season while SPY and QQQ sit in negative gamma, and the desk frames it as pinned drift until a wall breaks.
The Tape
SPY and QQQ are essentially flat to modestly red, drifting just below recent highs on light volume and small gaps. Oil is firm with USO up on the day and over the past week, while TLT and VIXY both edge higher, pointing to slightly easier long-end rates and subdued equity vol. The BLS has CPI up 0.6% month on month and 3.7% year on year, with CNBC and the BBC both flagging this as an upside inflation surprise into the US elections.
Your Book
Flat. No open positions. Risk: clean.
Morning Levels
Calendar
• 07:15 CT · ADP Employment Change Weekly (high)
• 09:00 CT · Existing Home Sales (medium)
• 12:00 CT · FOMC Member Barkin Speaks (high)
The Morning Argument
The PM’s Take
I respect the pin, but I do not trust it. Negative gamma with CPI and oil strength is stored energy, not today’s move. The desk leans toward quiet drift while we sit between SPY 772 and 780, and I accept that as the base case. The contrarian lens is that everyone is dismissing the inflation surprise as “already priced.” A decisive push through either SPY wall with volume would flip me to trading the move, not the pin. New information, new position. Next.
V. Cross, Partner